In-depth, fully referenced research on what is driving gold: central banks, rates and the dollar,
physical demand, ETF flows and positioning. Analysis and scenarios, not forecasts.
LATESTSPECIAL REPORT4 Nov 2026 · 4 pages
Russia appears to be diverging from the broader official-sector gold accumulation trend. Sanctions constraints and wider fiscal strain are pushing its gold holdings towards more active internal management, even as global central banks continue to buy.
- Russia’s documented 2026 gold reduction appears limited in tonnage rather than a broad liquidation programme: Governor Nabiullina described a “slight decrease” in holdings, saying it was mostly linked to Ministry of Finance transactions involving National Wealth Fund assets, while WGC-linked remarks cited a 22t Q2 reduction.
- The value of Russia’s monetary gold fell sharply during 2026, from $402,706mn on 1 February to $301,607mn on 1 October, but the notes indicate this reflects both gold-price valuation swings and only a modest decline in tonnage rather than large-scale selling.
- Russia’s fiscal backdrop has worsened materially. Reported budget data showed a deficit of 2.5% of GDP in H1 2026, a possible full-year deficit of 3% of GDP versus an official 1.6% plan, and a Jan-Sep deficit of RUB 5.186tn, or 2.2% of GDP.
- The Bank of Russia has explicitly linked reserve contraction to NWF-related operations, saying reserves are expected to fall by $5bn in 2026 and by a further $11bn in 2027 and $9bn in 2028 under its baseline assumptions.
- Russia remains an outlier within a strong official-sector buying cycle: WGC reported global central-bank net purchases of 288.9t in Q2 and 321.2t in Q3, while publicly reported September purchases reached 61t, the highest monthly total of 2026 so far.
SPECIAL REPORT2 Nov 2026 · 4 pages
Gold’s late-October rebound fits a familiar macro pattern: lower Treasury yields, softer real rates and a less supportive dollar backdrop are helping bullion recover from its September-October slide. The move does not make gold a pure rates trade again, but it does suggest macro sensitivity is reasserting itself at the margin.
SPECIAL REPORT30 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
Silver’s fall through $50/oz and the sharp rise in the gold-silver ratio suggest broader stress across precious metals, not just a silver-specific setback. The pattern fits a mix of higher-for-longer rate fears, equity-market stress and a less supportive physical silver backdrop.
SPECIAL REPORT29 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
Gold’s move below $4,000 has challenged a key psychological and market-structure level, but the evidence does not yet show a durable regime break lower. Structural demand from central banks, ETFs and Asian dip-buying is still present, while elevated real yields, a firm dollar and softer futures positioning keep the floor under pressure.
SPECIAL REPORT25 Oct 2026 · 5 pages
Gold’s 2026 pattern looks broader than a standard safe-haven move. Strong ETF inflows despite rising yields, alongside continued central-bank buying and reserve reshuffling, suggest investors and official institutions are responding to similar concerns about fiscal credibility, geopolitics and reserve diversification.
SPECIAL REPORT23 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
Hotter US inflation and producer-price data have reinforced expectations for further Fed tightening, a backdrop that would usually weigh more heavily on gold. Yet ETF inflows and official-sector buying suggest part of the market is still using gold as a hedge against persistent inflation, bond-market volatility and broader macro confidence risks.
SPECIAL REPORT21 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
China and India are showing that record prices do not automatically mean collapsing physical demand. Jewellery volumes have been pressured, but premiums, ETF inflows, old-gold exchange and seasonal restocking suggest local markets are holding up better than headline tonnage implies.
SPECIAL REPORT19 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
Record prices are reshaping physical demand across Asia rather than ending it. China shows weak jewellery tonnage but resilient investment-led buying and positive local premiums, while India and the UAE show more tactical dip-buying, recycling and promotion-led retail activity.
SPECIAL REPORT15 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
The old positive oil-gold inflation trade still exists, but it is less reliable in the current regime. Recent market action suggests energy shocks are first being read through the lens of Fed hawkishness and higher real yields, with gold recovering only if inflation persists, growth weakens or geopolitical stress broadens.
SPECIAL REPORT13 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
Chinese demand appears to be absorbing part of the recent softness in global gold, mainly through investment channels rather than jewellery. Positive Shanghai premiums, elevated imports and sustained ETF inflows point to selective dip-buying, although weaker wholesale withdrawals show the support is not uniform.
SPECIAL REPORT11 Oct 2026 · 4 pages
Official-sector demand remains a key support for the gold market even after easing from the 2022–2024 peak. The visible buying is still concentrated in major emerging-market reserve managers, while opaque purchases and custody reshuffling suggest the official bid is broader than monthly reserve data alone implies.
SPECIAL REPORT11 Oct 2026 · 3 pages
Indian jewellery demand has softened under the weight of high and volatile local prices, but that does not amount to a collapse in eastern gold demand. The offset is coming less from Chinese jewellery and more from Chinese investment demand, ETFs and central-bank buying, especially from the official sector.
GoldSquawk special reports are researched with the help of AI from the sources cited in each
report and reviewed before publication. For information only; not investment advice.